Abalone Cove Swell Statistics, Febbraio: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Abalone Cove that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February and is based upon 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 2% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal February but 11% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 11%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Abalone Cove is quite sheltered from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Abalone Cove about 2% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 2.0% of the time. This is means that we expect 1 days with waves in a typical February, of which 1 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.