Aisling's Beach Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aisling's Beach that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere summer. It is based on 6931 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 28% of the time, equivalent to 25 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal southern hemisphere summer but 3% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 3%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Aisling's Beach is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Aisling's Beach about 28% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 29% of the time. This is means that we expect 52 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere summer, of which 25 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.