Aligator Rock Swell Statistics, All Year: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aligator Rock that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical year and is based upon 28044 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 38% of the time, equivalent to 139 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 5% of the time (18 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Aligator Rock is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Aligator Rock about 38% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 8% of the time. This is means that we expect 168 days with waves in a typical year, of which 139 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.