The Pass Swell Statistics, Luglio: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at The Pass that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical July. It is based on 2475 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0% of the time, equivalent to 0 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal July. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that The Pass is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at The Pass about 0% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 1.0% of the time. This is means that we expect 0 days with waves in a typical July, of which 0 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.