Andrew Molera State Park Swell Statistics, Novembre: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Andrew Molera State Park that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal November. It is based on 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the N. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 55% of the time, equivalent to 16 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 3% of the time in a typical November, equivalent to just one day but 30% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 30%, equivalent to (9 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Andrew Molera State Park is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Andrew Molera State Park about 55% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 43% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical November, of which 16 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.