Ano Nuevo Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ano Nuevo that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere winter and is based upon 6931 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was W, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the N. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 7% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 1.9% of the time (2 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Ano Nuevo is quite sheltered from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Ano Nuevo about 7% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 11% of the time. This is means that we expect 16 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 6 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.