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Vota Anse Kerlan


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Anse Kerlan Swell Statistics, Summer: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram shows the variation of swells directed at Anse Kerlan through a typical southern hemisphere summer and is based upon 8485 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Anse Kerlan, and at Anse Kerlan the best grid node is 41 km away (25 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 34% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NW. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Anse Kerlan and out to sea. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Anse Kerlan, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average southern hemisphere summer, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Anse Kerlan run for about 66% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.