Anse de Cabestan Swell Statistics, Ottobre: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Anse de Cabestan that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 25% of the time, equivalent to 8 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal October but 10% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 10%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Anse de Cabestan is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Anse de Cabestan about 25% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 55% of the time. This is means that we expect 25 days with waves in a typical October, of which 8 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.