Anse de Vauville Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Anse de Vauville that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere winter and is based upon 6929 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was W, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the WSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 2% of the time, equivalent to 2 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal northern hemisphere winter. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Anse de Vauville is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Anse de Vauville about 2% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 41% of the time. This is means that we expect 39 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 2 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.