Apache Pier Swell Statistics, Maggio: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Apache Pier that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical May and is based upon 2200 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the S. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 16% of the time, equivalent to 5 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal May. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Apache Pier is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Apache Pier about 16% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 70% of the time. This is means that we expect 27 days with waves in a typical May, of which 5 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.