Apua Point Swell Statistics, Maggio: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Apua Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical May. It is based on 2200 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was S, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 3% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal May. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Apua Point is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Apua Point about 3% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 49% of the time. This is means that we expect 16 days with waves in a typical May, of which 1 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.