Apua Point Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Apua Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere summer. It is based on 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0.6% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal northern hemisphere summer. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Apua Point is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Apua Point about 0.6% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 56% of the time. This is means that we expect 52 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere summer, of which 1 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.