Arugam Bay Swell Statistics, Luglio: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Arugam Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical July and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was S, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 2.0% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal July. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Arugam Bay is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Arugam Bay about 2.0% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 98% of the time. This is means that we expect 31 days with waves in a typical July, of which 1 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.