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Happy Jacks Swell Statistics, Ottobre: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Happy Jacks that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October and is based upon 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.

The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 11% of the time, equivalent to 3 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal October. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Happy Jacks is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Happy Jacks about 11% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 14% of the time. This is means that we expect 8 days with waves in a typical October, of which 3 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.