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Vota Horseshoe Bay 1


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Horseshoe Bay 1 Swell Statistics, Spring: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure illustrates the combination of swells directed at Horseshoe Bay 1 over a normal southern hemisphere spring. It is based on 8724 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coast so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Horseshoe Bay 1, and at Horseshoe Bay 1 the best grid node is 55 km away (34 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 1.8% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the S. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Horseshoe Bay 1 and out to sea. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Horseshoe Bay 1, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical southern hemisphere spring, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Horseshoe Bay 1 run for about 45% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.