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Vota Isla Negra


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Isla Negra Swell Statistics, Summer: All Swell – Any Wind

This image shows the combination of swells directed at Isla Negra through a typical southern hemisphere summer. It is based on 8485 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Isla Negra, and at Isla Negra the best grid node is 30 km away (19 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These occurred only 77% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Isla Negra and away from the coast. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Isla Negra, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average southern hemisphere summer, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Isla Negra run for about 23% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.