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Mitchell's Bay Swell Statistics, Ottobre: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Mitchell's Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.

The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 1.8% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal October. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Mitchell's Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Mitchell's Bay about 1.8% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 1.2% of the time. This is means that we expect 1 days with waves in a typical October, of which 1 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.