Tokatu Peninsula Surf Stats
- Forecast
- Maps
- Live
- Weather State
- Spot Information
All swells
![](/graphs/statistics/Tokatu-Peninsula.surf.statistics.march.gif)
![](/graphs/statistics/ENE.animated.gif)
![](/graphs/statistics/ENE.label.animated.gif)
The rose diagram illustrates the combination of swells directed at Tokatu Peninsula through an average March, based on 3460 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coast so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Tokatu Peninsula. In the case of Tokatu Peninsula, the best grid node is 20 km away (12 miles). The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These happened 63% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens. The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SE. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Tokatu Peninsula and offshore. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Tokatu Peninsula, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical March, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Tokatu Peninsula run for about 13% of the time.