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Vota Waihua


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Waihua Swell Statistics, Ottobre: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Waihua that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was S, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 29% of the time, equivalent to 9 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October but 10% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 10%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Waihua is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Waihua about 29% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 33% of the time. This is means that we expect 19 days with waves in a typical October, of which 9 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.