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Vota Old Man's Hat


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Old Man's Hat Swell Statistics, Ottobre: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Old Man's Hat that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was E, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 6% of the time, equivalent to 2 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal October. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Old Man's Hat is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Old Man's Hat about 6% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 8% of the time. This is means that we expect 4 days with waves in a typical October, of which 2 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.