Aan Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aan that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere winter and is based upon 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ESE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 3% of the time, equivalent to 3 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal southern hemisphere winter but 2% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 2%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Aan is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Aan about 3% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 93% of the time. This is means that we expect 87 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 3 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.