Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) Swell Statistics, Ottobre: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was W, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 21% of the time, equivalent to 7 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 4% of the time in a typical October, equivalent to just one day but 17% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 17%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) is quite sheltered from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) about 21% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 19% of the time. This is means that we expect 12 days with waves in a typical October, of which 7 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.