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Vota Kaiaua Bay


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Kaiaua Bay Swell Statistics, Ottobre: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Kaiaua Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October and is based upon 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was E, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 18% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October but 8% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 8%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Kaiaua Bay is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Kaiaua Bay about 18% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 16% of the time. This is means that we expect 11 days with waves in a typical October, of which 6 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.