Surf Forecast Surf Report
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Outside Shoals Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)

Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

The figure illustrates the combination of swells directed at Outside Shoals through a typical March, based on 2964 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Outside Shoals. In the case of Outside Shoals, the best grid node is 24 km away (15 miles). The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These occurred only 37% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens. The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NW. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Outside Shoals and offshore. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Outside Shoals, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average March, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Outside Shoals run for about 63% of the time.

Also see Outside Shoals wind stats

Compare Outside Shoals with another surf break

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